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Topics > Climate Change > Climate science and projections

Latest climate projections for SA

New climate change projections and guide for SA

New nationally-recognised climate change projections for South Australia are now available. See:

The new guide provides reliable information on the likely future changes in South Australia’s climate to help for councils, regions, industry, and climate adaptation leaders to plan for our future.

Latest climate projections for SA

It provides a summary of likely changes to key climate variables, such as temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, days of severe fire danger and sea level rise, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

It includes new dynamically downscaled projections for SA from the NARCliM project, and replaces earlier SA Climate Ready projections. The guide provides summary tables for the NARCliM 1.5 climate projections for three future timeframes: 2020-2039, 2040-2059, and 2080-2099.

Latest climate projections for SA

New projections maps and key findings

Statewide maps of key climate variables are now available. See:

The summary report includes:

  • average annual rainfall
  • average daily maximum temperature
  • average annual number of days of 40 oC or above.
Latest climate projections for SA

Benefits of new NARCliM 1.5 modelling

Computer modelled climate projections are the best information we have available on our future climate. The new NARCliM1.5 projections simulate a continuous period from 1951-2100, for two emissions scenarios:

  • a ‘medium-range’ scenario (RCP 4.5)
  • a ‘high’ emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).

The new projections offer significant enhancements on earlier projections. Notably, they use a dynamic modelling process that takes account of the influence of landscape features such as mountain ranges and coastlines. The extensive coverage of the NARCliM 1.5 modelling of South Australia enables statewide mapping of projected changes in average temperature, rainfall and extreme heat. The new projections also provide data for every location in South Australia.

Climate projections from the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology

The CSIRO, in collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology, released climate projections for Australian regions in 2015. These projections can be found on the Climate Change in Australia website.

The projections describe likely changes in key variables for Australian regions, including temperature and rainfall averages and extremes, heatwaves, fire weather, cyclones, average and extreme sea level rise and ocean acidification. Other variables include wind, soil moisture, runoff, evapotranspiration, humidity and solar radiation.

Climate Projections from the Goyder Institute for Water Research

The Goyder Institute for Water Research, as part of the SA Climate Ready Project, released the most comprehensive set of downscaled climate projections data ever available in South Australia in 2015. This data complements the national scale projections produced by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.Data is available for six climate variables: rainfall, temperature maximum, temperature minimum, areal potential evapotranspiration, solar radiation, and vapour pressure deficit.

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