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To help irrigators and other water users better understand the likelihood of improvements in their water allocations, the department has prepared water availability projections for climatic conditions ranging from extremely dry to wet.

They indicate how likely water allocations are to reach the projected level during 2019‑20, based on historical rainfall and temperature data from the last 30 years, current River Murray storage levels and operational conditions across the Murray-Darling Basin.

The water availability projections are calculated using River Murray system modelling and South Australia’s River Murray water allocation framework.

An assessment of the likelihood of increased irrigation allocations currently indicates that there is a 90 percent likelihood that irrigation allocations will increase to at least 75 percent during the 2019-20 water year.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s mid-range outlook across the Murray-Darling Basin shows there is no strong indication either way towards a wetter or drier than average 3 months ahead.

Class 3 water allocation forecasts

SA River Murray
Irrigation Allocation Scenarios
All Purpose - Class 3
1 Jul
Opening Allocation
1 Sep 1 Nov 1 Jan 1 Apr
Projected allocation as a percentage
Exceptionally dry
- 99 % likelihood allocation will be at least
14 19 25 32 37
Extreme dry conditions
- 95% likelihood allocation will be at least
23 43 52 57
Very dry conditions
- 90% likelihood allocation will be at least
26 48 71 75
Dry conditions
- 75% likelihood allocation will be at least
37 62 85 86
Average conditions
- 50% likelihood allocation will be at least
46 84 100 100
Wet conditions
- 25% likelihood allocation will be at least
64 100 100 100

DISCLAIMER: This data is provided for information only. Historical performance is not necessarily an indicator of future outcomes. Projections are based on historical climate variability across the last 30 years. The Government of South Australia accepts no liability for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance on any of this data or information.

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