Open navigation

To help irrigators and other water users better understand the likelihood of improvements in their water allocations, the department has prepared water availability projections for climatic conditions ranging from extremely dry to wet.

They indicate how likely water allocations are to reach the projected level during 2019‑20, based on historical rainfall and temperature data from the last 30 years, current River Murray storage levels and operational conditions across the Murray-Darling Basin.

The water availability projections are calculated using River Murray system modelling and South Australia’s River Murray water allocation framework.

An assessment of the likelihood of increased irrigation allocations currently indicates that there is a 90 percent likelihood that irrigation allocations will increase to at least 87 percent during the 2019-20 water year.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) has recently updated its seasonal outlook for the three months from July to September 2019. The new outlook indicates that it is now likely to be drier than average across the Murray-Darling Basin. The chances of a drier than average three months exceeds 75 percent for much of south-east Australia. Above average maximum temperatures are also likely. 

Class 3 water allocation forecasts            

SA River Murray
Irrigation Allocation Scenarios
All Purpose - Class 3
1 Jul
Opening Allocation
1 Sep 1 Nov 1 Jan 1 Apr
Projected allocation as a percentage
Exceptionally dry
- 99 % likelihood allocation will be at least
26 32 37 44 50
Extreme dry conditions
- 95% likelihood allocation will be at least
36 55 64 69
Very dry conditions
- 90% likelihood allocation will be at least
 38 60 82 87
Dry conditions
- 75% likelihood allocation will be at least
49 73 97 97
Average conditions
- 50% likelihood allocation will be at least
58 95 100 100
Wet conditions
- 25% likelihood allocation will be at least
76 100 100 100

DISCLAIMER: This data is provided for information only. Historical performance is not necessarily an indicator of future outcomes. Projections are based on historical climate variability across the last 30 years. The Government of South Australia accepts no liability for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance on any of this data or information.

Click here to view form.